Abstract In 2016, crude oil prices continued to innovate low. Last week, despite the rebound in oil prices, the industry is expected to remain in the era of low oil prices this year due to the oversupply market pattern. As crude oil prices continue to fall, shale oil companies and oil companies will face...
Entering 2016, crude oil prices continue to innovate low. Last week, despite the rebound in oil prices, the industry is expected to remain in the era of low oil prices this year due to the oversupply market pattern.
As crude oil prices continue to fall, shale oil companies and oil companies will face a sharp decline in performance or even losses. Recently, Liaoning Chengda announced that the company's shale oil project has been discontinued. At the same time, PetroChina also expects net profit in 2015 to decrease by 60%-70%.
Analysts believe that with the fall in oil prices, this year shale oil companies will usher in a wave of bankruptcy, and oil companies including PetroChina will face unprecedented pressure.
Shale oil companies fall into losses
As oil prices fall, shale oil companies have been unable to support them.
On January 28, Liaoning Chengda announced that due to the continuous decline in the price of shale oil, the company decided to implement the long-term suspension of the Huadian oil shale comprehensive project invested and developed by its subsidiary Jilin Chengda Hongsheng Energy Co., Ltd. Therefore, the assets of 1.1 billion yuan were accrued.
In this regard, Liaoning Chengda said that since May 2015, the price of shale oil market has continued to fall. According to the current situation, it is difficult for Chengda Hongsheng to get rid of the operational difficulties. After careful consideration, the company decided to stop the production and operation activities of Dahonghong for a long time.
Due to its unique mining conditions and technical requirements, shale oil is much more expensive than traditional oil, and low oil prices allow the high-cost shale oil project to unload the aura.
At the beginning of 2015, many large energy companies have terminated the shale oil project. The Standard & Poor's study found that three-quarters of the 100 small and medium-sized shale oil companies in the United States are at risk of bankruptcy due to high debt.
Since January this year, oil prices have fallen below $30/barrel, which has made the shale oil companies that have already fallen into losses worse, which is almost impossible to maintain.
Not long ago, the United States' three major shale oil companies Hess, Continental Resources and Noble Energy announced that this year will reduce capital expenditures by 40%-66%. This is the second consecutive year that the three companies cut their expenses. One of the companies also said that oil prices need to rise by more than 20% in order to turn losses into profits.
It is worth mentioning that last week, international crude oil prices rebounded by 20% after hitting the lowest level in 12 years. The rebound in oil prices was mainly due to reports that OPEC will discuss with other oil-producing countries outside the organization to cut oil production.
Although oil prices have fallen by 70% from June 2014, OPEC adheres to a strategy of grabbing market share in crude oil production at historically high levels.
The industry believes that US shale oil production has doubled since 2008 and has become one of the major factors in the global crude oil supply. Before "destroying" US shale oil producers, Saudi Arabia will not cut production to allow oil prices to rebound. Oil prices are below $30/barrel, and US shale oil companies will continue to lose money. If oil prices continue to be low, shale oil companies will go bankrupt.
Oil and gas industry may not be profitable
Under the so-called nesting, there is an end of the eggs, and the oil and gas industry may be profitable under low oil prices.
PetroChina announced on January 29 that it expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to decrease by 60%-70% in the same period of the previous year.
According to the announcement, in 2015, due to the combined impact of international oil price decline and domestic natural gas price reduction, the company's operating performance has declined significantly. Facing the complicated and severe business situation, the company adheres to steady development, strictly controls the scale of investment, implements low-cost strategy, optimizes production operations based on the market, promotes asset restructuring, and has achieved remarkable results, effectively alleviating the decline in oil and gas prices. Negative Effects.
PetroChina also said that the international oil and gas market will continue to be sluggish in 2016 and market competition will further intensify. The company will vigorously implement the four strategies of resources, market, internationalization and innovation, and carry out in-depth development of revenue reduction and cost reduction, and continuously optimize business layout and asset structure.
COSL also expects net profit to fall by about 85% last year. As international crude oil prices continue to fall, oil companies generally cut capital expenditures. The company's workload and service prices have fallen, and goodwill impairment and other asset impairments have to be made.
Recently, at the CNOOC New Year Strategic Outlook Conference, CNOOC CEO Li Fanrong said that the current market expects crude oil prices to remain at a low level in 2016, so the oil and gas industry faces major challenges if it is assumed that oil prices are low throughout the year. At $30/barrel, the company will be very difficult. "According to last year's cost structure, I don't know who can make a profit in the industry."
Since the second half of 2014, the crisis of oversupply in the international market has been highlighted, and crude oil prices have continued to fall sharply. By the end of 2015, the trial rebound of crude oil has failed, and international crude oil has finally entered the era of low prices.
Zhongyu Information analyst Gao Chengsha told the Securities Daily that in 2016, CNOOC and PetroChina should cut upstream capital expenditures or crude oil production, which is considered to be an important measure to save money and save costs. It will improve the performance of oil companies this year.
